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«DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE RUSSIAN-NORWEGIAN TRADE FACILITIES IN NORTHERN NORWAY Prefeasibility study Akvaplan-niva AS Report: 4673-01 This page is ...»

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In 2011, Rotterdam was the most important destination for Russian petroleum products shipped from the North with 36% of all vessels. Amsterdam was the second with about 17%, followed by Houston in Texas with almost 6%. There have been shipments to around 40 ports/destinations, most of them in Europe. 15 Even if Rotterdam was the registered destination for more than 1/3 of the petroleum transports from the Russian North, the port is not always the final destination. It is not uncommon that a petroleum cargo shipment is being redirected to another port during the voyage. 16 The oil companies have their own trading operators, or they sell through major independent energy brokers.

London and Geneva are the major European trading hubs for physical energy commodities, such as crude oil, but London is presently lacking after Geneva due to stiffer regulations in London, which makes traders moving to Switzerland. The Geneva Trading and Shipping Association claim that the city is now handling 75% of Russia's oil export.

In 2011, both state-owned Rosneft and the top-refiner Bashneft expanded their trading activities from Moscow to Geneva. Here Novatek and Lukoil have already been based for years; the first trading through its subsidiaries Novatek Gas & Power (ex. Runitek) since 2006, the latter through their subsidiary Litasco Group since 2000, being one of the major international traders of crude oil and refined petroleum products.

In Geneva, we also find Trafigura, Gunvor and Mercuria, the world's third, fourth and fifth largest oil traders. 17 The energy trading company Gunvor had 65 billion USD in revenue in 2010. The company operates in the trade, transport and storage of energy products, as well as having investments in oil terminal and port facilities. 18 Novatek Gas & Power in Switzerland trades globally all gas condensate produced by Novatek.

95% of the condensate is sold directly to the end-user, even if some of it is sold through agents.

Around 5% of the condensate delivered to terminals in USA is being resold by the buyer. 19 The Norwegian Costal Administration, monthly traffic statistics petroleum transports to/from Russian ports in North.

Statement from an international trader on 30 November 2011, based on confidentiality.

Mikal Boe, Chief Risk Officer at Eagle Shipping International (USA) Inc., 17 November 2011; Financial Times, 22 November 2010 and 7 February 2011; OAO Novatek IFRS consolidated interim condensed financial information, 1st and 2nd Quarter 2011.

www.gunvorgroup.com See footnote 16.

LNG In 2010, the global LNG export was equal to about 300 billion m3 of natural gas and accounted 30.5% of global gas trade. Qatar had the largest output liquefying 76 billion m3 of natural gas in

2010. The global LNG capacity is increasing rapidly through new projects, but by 2020 Qatar will still be in the lead. In 2010, Russia liquefied 13.4 billion m3 of natural gas producing almost 10 million tons of LNG. 20 In 2020, Russia can produce 50 million tons of LNG when Gazprom, Novatek and Alltech projects are realized in the Barents, Pechora, Kara and Okhotsk seas.

Presently, Russia has one LNG factory located at Sakhalin in the Far East that was built within Sakhalin-2 project operated by Gazprom in cooperation with Shell, Mitsui and Mitsubishi. The LNG plant was launched in 2009, and in 2010 reached the capacity of 9.6 million tons annually. 21

Three more LNG factories are being planned in the Russian North:

The Shtokman LNG plant in Teriberka east of Murmansk, being linked to the development of the large Shtokman natural gas and condensate field some 600 km offshore in the Barents Sea, is expected to be put on stream in 2017. The annual output of 23.7 billion m3 of natural gas from the first stage of the Shtokman field development, which indirectly is owned by Gazprom, Total and Statoil, will be split to produce 7.5 million tons of LNG and pipe 11 billion m3 of gas. 22 LNG will be exported to the international market by a fleet of new Gazprom-owned LNG tankers.

On Yamal, the Russian independent gas producer Novatek will construct a LNG plant together with Total. The project includes the development of the nearby Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye natural gas and condensate field. The plant is scheduled to be in production in 2016 and to reach the production target 15 million tons of LNG annually in 2018. 23 Export of Yamal LNG is planned on specially designed LNG tankers through the Kara Sea, west- and eastwards.

LNG production is also planned in Indiga in the Nenets region, on the coast of the Pechora Sea – southeastern Barents Sea. Companies of the Russian Alltech Group announced plans to build gas pipeline from Kumzhinskoye and Korovinskoye fields to Indiga, and a Pechora LNG plant with the total capacity of 5 million tons per annum when completed. Both gas fields are to be put in production in 2015. 24 The trading of Russian LNG is likely to follow the international model. As example, Statoil considers all contracts below four years as spot contracts. These constitute 17-18% of the company's LNG contracts, being cargo sold to a terminal – where the buyer can resell to another customer if desired. The rest is long-term contracts with end-users due to the need for financial security of the huge investments required for LNG production. These contracts generally last 20 years but with prices adjusted to the market on monthly basis. As the US market in the future is going to be covered by domestic shale gas, Asia and Europe will become more important market for LNG. Already today, half of UKs gas consumption is LNG. 25 BP Statistical Review of World Energy. June 2011.

Bambulyak, A. and Frantzen, B. (2011) Oil transport from the Russian part of the Barents region. Status per January 2011. Norwegian Barents Secretariat and Akvaplan-niva report (p. 39).

See previous footnote (pp. 40, 64).

See previous footnote (p. 40) and www.barentsobserver.com 10 October 2011.

See previous footnote (pp. 40, 57).

Roald Maudal, Trading Analyst with Statoil ASA, 30 November 2011 Non-ferrous metals The world output of nickel in 2010 was 1 430 200 tons, which was an 8.5% increase from 2009.

Russia and China had the largest production expansion with 20.6%, partially due to increased output of nickel-contained pig-iron in China. In addition, Norilsk Nickel of Russia has been producing nickel on a favorable tone at the Harjavalta refinery in Southwestern Finland (acquisitioned in 2007) and increased their output in 2010 by 6.7% from that in 2009 as a whole. The expansion of nickel production at Norilsk Nickel was caused by increased supply of raw material from Southern Africa. 26 Norilsk Nickel MMC is the largest mining and metal company in Russia, the world's largest producer of nickel and palladium and one of the world's largest producers of platinum, rhodium, copper and cobalt. In addition to this, the company produces a large number of other byproducts, including gold, silver, tellurium, selenium, iridium and ruthenium.

The key production units are located on Taimyr Peninsula in Siberia and on Kola Peninsula in the Northwest Russia. In 2010, the proven reserves in these two regions were 473 million tons of ore, containing about 5.8 million tons of nickel and more than 8.7 million tons of copper. 27 In 2010, Norilsk Nickel produced 297 000 tons of nickel and 389 000 tons of copper. The nickel output was relatively stable the last four years, while the copper output has been slowly decreasing since 2005.

In 2009, the output from Taimyr was 124 000 tons of nickel and 324 000 tons of copper, while the Kola branch produced 109 000 tons and 59 000 tons respectively. 28 In 2010, during the modernization and reconstruction of the company's own terminal in Murmansk, 10 Norilsk Nickel's ships were handled there; the freight volume of transshipments was 104 000 tons. In 2011, the cargo transshipments was forecasted to grow to 200 000 tons, and up to 750 000 tons annually from 2012.

Norilsk Nickel's own vessels made 54 voyages, 12 direct voyages to European ports and one to South-East Asia. 29 Like crude oil, the global trade with non-ferrous metals as nickel and copper is regulated, and most of it is being made through the international commodity/metal exchanges as derivate.

Only 6% of the production was sold via independent traders in 2010. In December same year, the commodity trader Trafigura bought an 8% share in Norilsk Nickel, but the deal is presently being disputed by Rusal, which holds 15% of the company. 30 Trafigura, having main office in Amsterdam, is the world’s third largest independent oil trader and the second largest independent trader in the non-ferrous concentrates market. 31 The TEX Report Ltd, 11 March 2011.

Norilsk Nickel, Mineral Reserves and Resource Statement.

www.nornik.ru/en/our_products Norilsk Nickel, Press Release 24 March 2011.

Norilsk Nickel Investor Fact Sheet; Norilsk Nickel Publication 17 May 2011.

www.trafigura.com Ferrous metals/iron ore World production of iron ore fell by 6.2% in 2009 to 1.6 billion tons, but despite this recession, iron ore trade reached a record level as exports increased for the eight year in a row and reached 955 million tons, up 7.4% compared to 2008. The increase was a result of a higher demand in China combined with a fall in domestic production.

The three largest iron ore companies, Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton controlled 35.4% of the global iron ore production and 61% of the world seaborne trade of iron ore in 2009. 32 Russia produced 100 million tons of iron ore in 2010, a 10% increase from 2009. 20 million tons (20%) of the iron output went to export. 33 Almost 60% of the Russian iron ore reserves are located in the Kursk magnetic anomaly (KMA), located within the Kursk, Belgorod, and Voronezh oblasts in European Russia, and about 15% are located in the Ural Mountains region. 34 The Russian iron ore mines and concentrating mills controlled by 12 main iron producers and some smaller suppliers. Four large producers control around 50% of the total Russian production.

Practically, all Russian mining companies are parts of large vertically integrated metallurgic groups which are dominated by steel producers. These are Severstal, Evraz, Mechel and NLMK.

The exception is Metalloinvest, where the iron ore company owns the steelmaking division. 35 World crude steel production decreased in 2009 from 1 329 million tons in 2008 to 1 232 million tons, a 7.3% drop. But at the same time, the Chinese steel production increased by 12.8% compared to 2.2% growth the previous year. For 2010, the general downwards trend had reversed as world steel production was growing globally by 13% to 1 417 million tons.

Russia's steel production in 2010 was 66 942 tons, or 4.7% of the global output. 36 27.2 million tons (40%) of the steel went to export. 37 Iron ore has traditionally been traded different than other metals; until August 2008, it was common with closed contracts with the end-user, usually on annual basis. After August 2008, short term contracts became more common, and there is a process of including trade with iron ore into the metal exchanges.

Sydvaranger Gruve in Kirkenes, owned by the Australian Northern Iron Ltd, is presently selling 50% of the output of iron ore concentrate directly to end-users in Asia, based on long-term contracts. The other half is being sold to end-users in China through OM Holdings Ltd in Singapore, which owns 14.6% of Northern Iron Ltd and with whom the mining company has a five year exclusive marketing agreement on uncommitted iron ore concentrate in the Asian market. From 2012, the mining company is planning to increase the direct sale to 70%. 38 UNCTAD Trust Fund Project on Iron Ore Information: The iron ore market 2009-2011, abstract.

US Geological Survey: Mineral Commodity Summaries, January 2011; ISSB, Global Overview.

www.wikipedia.org www.steelonthenet.com/memo/steel_in_crisis_Apr_09.html Steel Statistical Yearbook 2011, p. 3.

ISSB, Global Overview.

John Sanderson, Sydvaranger Gruve, November 2011; OM Holdings Limited, January 2011; Northern Iron Annual Report 2010.

Coal Russia has the world's second largest coal reserves (18%) after USA, it produces over 300 million tons per year and exports 1/3 of the coal extracted – being the world's third largest coal exporter after Australia and Indonesia. 39 Russian coal reserves are widely dispersed and occur in a number of major basins. These range from the Moscow Basin in the far west to the eastern end of the Donetsk Basin (most of which is within Ukraine) in the south, the Pechora Basin in the far northeast of European Russia, and Irkutsk, Kuznetsk, Kansk-Achinsk, Lena, South Yakutia and Tunguska basins extending across Siberia to the Far East. 40 The principal economic hard coal deposits are found in the Pechora and Kuznetsk basins.

Major Russian coal producers are SUEZ, Kuzbassrazrezugol (KZRU), Yuzhkuzbassugol and South Kuzbass (UKUZ). Together these four companies have around 50% of the total Russian output and most of the export. 41 The main markets for Russian coal are EU and China. In 2011, Russia produced 334 million tons of coal and exported 104 million tons. 42 60% was exported westwards, mainly to EU, while 10% went eastwards to China.

Russia aims at boosting coal export by 50% within 2020 to meet the growing demand, which is mainly in Asia. 43 Most of the Russian coal to Asia is being exported over Vostochny port, east of Nakhodka, on the eastern end of the Trans-Siberian Railway. 44 Around 60% of the westwards export is carried out by sea over Black, Barents and Baltic ports. 45 The major Russian coal producers have been undergoing a process with restructuring into larger and vertical organizations, controlling the chain from excavation/processing to distribution. 46 The coal is being sold through several Russian traders, and like the crude oil, the trading hubs for Russian coal are often located in Switzerland. An example is SUEK AG, which since 2004 has been trading both coal from its owner Siberian Coal Energy Company (SUEK) and other Russian mining companies.

In 2010, SUEK AG was trading 28 million tons of coal, or 40% of all westwards Russian export.

More than 70% was sold directly to the end-user. In 2011, SUEK was expecting to export around World Coal Association statistics and BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011.

World Energy Council: 2007 Survey of Energy Resources, pp. 34-35 Russia's Coal Producers: The Search For Quality, p. 10.

RBK– Ministry of Energy of Russia statistics.

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