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«DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE RUSSIAN-NORWEGIAN TRADE FACILITIES IN NORTHERN NORWAY Prefeasibility study Akvaplan-niva AS Report: 4673-01 This page is ...»

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DEVELOPMENT OF MARINE

RUSSIAN-NORWEGIAN TRADE FACILITIES

IN NORTHERN NORWAY

Prefeasibility study

Akvaplan-niva AS Report: 4673-01

This page is intentionally left blank

Yenisey – newly built ice-class tanker of Norilsk Nickel

Cover page photo:

in Murmansk port on her way to Dudinka, October 2011.

Photo by Bjørn Franzen, Bioforsk Svanhovd.

Akvaplan-niva AS Rådgivning og forskning innen miljø og akvakultur Org.nr: NO 937 375 158 MVA Framsenteret, 9296 Tromsø, Norge Tlf: +47 7775 0300, Fax: +47 7775 0301 www.akvaplan.niva.no Report title Development of marine Russian-Norwegian trade facilities in Northern Norway. Prefeasibility study Author(s) Akvaplan-niva report number Alexei Bambulyak, Akvaplan-niva 4673-01 Rune Rautio, Akvaplan-niva Date Mikhail Grigoriev, Gecon 07.03.2012 No. of pages Distribution open Client Client’s reference Norwegian Barents Secretariat Rune Rafaelsen Maritimt Forum Nord SA Tor Husjord Summary This report presents the results of the preliminary evaluations of feasibilities and a potential for development of trade and transport communication between Russia and Norway with focus on possibilities and needs for increased marine infrastructure and harbors in the Northern Norway for transshipment of oil, coal and metals for international markets, and establishment of a hub for trading the goods internationally. This project discusses different aspects of establishing trade port facilities in the Northern Norway which may be of interest and benefit for all stakeholders – Russian, Norwegian and international businesses.

Project manager Quality controller __________________________ __________________________

Alexei Bambulyak Salve Dahle © 2012 Akvaplan-niva AS & Clients. This report may only be copied as a whole. Copying of part of this report (sections of text, illustrations, tables, conclusions, etc.) and/or reproduction in other ways, is only permitted with written consent from Akvaplan-niva AS and Clients.

Table of Contents PREFACE

CARGO FLOW TO EUROPE AND THE NORTH

RUSSIAN AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE WITH RAW MATERIALS

Trade mechanisms

Crude oil and petroleum products

LNG

Non-ferrous metals

Ferrous metals/iron ore

Coal

Phosphates

Aluminum

Timber

Fisheries

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF A NORTHERN TRANSPORT HUB

European Union

Northern Dimension

Finland

Russia

Federal Transport Strategy

Structure of freight turnover in Russian Western Arctic ports

Export cargo from the Russian Barents Region ports

Coal export

Mineral fertilizers export

Crude oil export

Gas condensate export

Petroleum products export

Prospects for the Russian Arctic Port developments

Norway

National transport strategies

Nordland

Troms

Finnmark

Relevant Norwegian Ports, Plans and Capacities

CONCLUSIONS

DeveIopment of marine Russian-Norwegian trade facilities in Northern Norway. Prefeasibility study Akvaplan-niva AS Rapport 4673-01 1 Preface The High North resources and the Arctic shipping routes have been among the most discussed issues on national and international political and business forums. Norway, Russia and European Union are elaborating their Arctic strategies and developing projects increasing trade and shipping activities in the North. Russia is currently shipping some 30 million tons of cargoes per year to the big harbors in Europe and North America bypassing Northern Norway. With Russia entering WTO, developing industrial projects and port infrastructure along the Northern Sea Root, the trade activities going both ways – east and west in the North will have a significant growth.

This report presents the results of the preliminary evaluations of feasibilities and a potential for development of trade and transport communication between Russia and Norway with focus on possibilities and needs for increased marine infrastructure and harbors in the Northern Norway for transshipment of oil, coal and metals for international markets, and establishment of a hub for trading the goods internationally.

This project discusses different aspects of establishing trade port facilities in the Northern Norway which may be of interest and benefit for all stakeholders – Russian, Norwegian and European/international businesses.

In this report we present information on existing and forecasted shipping activities in Norwegian and Russian High North based on development of the regions natural resources, commercialization of the Northern Sea Route and global market changes. We also look at trade mechanisms and do preliminary assessments of the future possibilities for the trade harbor in the Northern Norway. Further on, it is suggested to carry out more in-depth analyses of prospective trade directions as well logistic and infrastructure requirements taking into account different scenarios and forecasts of international trade development via these northernmost regions of the country.

This prefeasibility study was performed by Akvaplan-niva, Norway in cooperation with Gecon, Russia and financed by the Norwegian Barents Secretariat and Maritimt Forum Nord SA.





Cargo flow to Europe and the North The ports Rotterdam, Antwerp and Hamburg are the major distribution hubs for overseas and European goods with total 730 million tons in 2010. They are also the largest container ports.

Rotterdam is without comparison the largest European hub with a 430 million ton cargo flow in 2010, far more than Antwerp and Hamburg combined. Rotterdam is also the largest container port with 11.5 million TEU in 2010, which is 25% more than Antwerp and 30% more than Hamburg.

In 2009 around 50% of the container flow over Rotterdam was Asian, with China as the major destination and origin. Russia counted for only 3% of this traffic, while Sweden, Norway and Finland each had a 1.5% share. 1 No Scandinavian ports are ranked among the 20 largest in Europe, but Gothenburg in Sweden is the largest port in Scandinavia, both measured in total cargo flow and in containers.

The cargo flow in Europe is growing; from 2005 to 2010 the 20 major European ports had an average 10% growth in cargo distribution, while the container distribution grew by 15% TEU. In Norway as a whole, there was an average 12% rise in TEUs being distributed over the ports from 2009 to 2010. 2 In 2010, the cargo turnover of the Russian seaports was 526 million tons, versus 162 million tons in 1999, and 285 million tons in 2003. Bulked cargo formed about 60% of the volumes shipped in the Russian seaports, or 314 million tons in 2010, including 210 million tons of crude oil and 103 million tons of petroleum products. Coal with 69 million tons was the biggest dry cargo shipped, cargo in containers gave 33 million tons. Export cargoes shared about 77% of total annual turnover or 404 million tons, import cargoes – 7% or 39 million tons. 3 The seaports of the Northwest region – Baltic and Barents seas, take the leading position in the Russian ports cargo turnover. In 2010, the North-western seaports transshipped 228 million tons of cargo (or 43% of the Russian seaports freight turnover). Murmansk is the largest seaport in the Russian north. In 2010, it handled 25 million tons of cargo 4 and the total freight turnover (loading/offloading operations) amounted 33 million tons. 5 CBS/Port of Rotterdam Authority N.V.

Port of Göteborg, Årsstatistikk for Oslo havn 2010 og Nasjonal Containerstatistikk 2010 (utarbeidet av SSB og Larvik Havn).

Bambulyak, A. and Frantzen, B. (2011) Oil transport from the Russian part of the Barents region. The Norwegian Barents Secretariat and Akvaplan-niva report (p. 36).

See previous footnote (p. 65).

ESIMO – www.esimo.ru Russian and International Trade with Raw Materials Trade mechanisms Russian export trade with raw materials is well integrated in the international trade mechanisms, which varies between the commodities, but also within one and the same commodity.

Most of the Russian raw materials are being traded through different international raw material exchanges, each specialized on different commodities. As example, much of the international non-ferrous metal is being sold through London Metal Exchange (LME), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and the on-line based Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Energy, like oil, gas and coal, is likely to be traded through New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM) and ICE.

Coal is also being sold in the spot-market or on other types of contracts, not involving the energy exchanges.

For ferrous metals tradition has been annual or long-term contracts between supplier and producer, directly or through a trader, outside the international exchanges. But this is practice changing significantly.

Timber and seafood are raw materials basically being sold to customer directly on annual basis (timber) or in the spot-market and on-line as auctions (seafood).

In most cases, raw materials are being traded internationally either by the raw material producer, or by professional trading houses, which often are owned by the producer. The market is shared between relatively few and large trading houses, capable of offering the customers a variety of services. The trade is also marked by large geographical concentration, like London, Geneva, Singapore, where there are suitable taxes and environment for trading, finance and recruitment.

Crude oil and petroleum products Russia is the world's largest oil producer and exporter with about 13% share of the global oil production. In 2010, Russia produced 505 million tons of oil, and exported 247 million tons of crude 6 and 131 million tons of petroleum products. 7 170 million tons (69%) of crude oil exported from Russia in 2010 went to the West-European countries, where the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Poland were the main destinations. 36 Bambulyak, A. and Frantzen, B. (2011) Oil transport from the Russian part of the Barents region. The Norwegian Barents Secretariat and Akvaplan-niva report (p. 26).

Korzhubaev, A. et al. Russia on world crude oil and petroleum product markets. Drilling and Oil magazine, May 2011.

million tons were delivered to Asia-Pacific; and 15 million tons shipped directly to the NorthAmerica.

90% of the Russian exported petroleum products go westwards. Heavy fuel oil (mazut) with 72 million tons shared 55% of the products export volumes in 2010 (most of it was delivered to European refineries), and diesel with 41 million tons had 31% share. 8 Russian crude oil is to a great extent being sold in the commodity market as a derivative contract, like exchange traded futures and options, and over-the counter (privately negotiated) derivative as forwards, swaps and options. Due to the nature of the trade through international raw material exchanges, a derivative contract is often sold several times before the actual cargo is being delivered in a port, easily making the virtual volume being sold on the exchange in one day 10-15 times larger than the actual physical volume.

During the recent two years, the northern Timano-Pechora oil-and-gas bearing province and Lukoil's Varandey terminal in the Pechora Sea were main suppliers of the Russian crude oil shipped to the west along the Norwegian coast. In 2010, Varandey sent almost 8 million tons of crude for export, and in 2011 – 4 million tons, most of cargoes were transshipped at Belokamenka FSO in the Kola Bay of the Barents Sea. Small volumes of crude oil were also exported from the Ob Bay of the Kara Sea and Kolguev island in the Pechora Sea.

In 2010, Novatek, Russia's 2nd largest gas producer, exported 2.3 million tons of gas condensate, being shipped out from Vitino in the White Sea and Murmansk in the Barents Sea to the markets in Asia, USA and Europe. During first half of 2011, the exported volume was 1.5 million tons;

601 000 tons in 11 shipments to Europe, 573 000 tons in 10 shipments to Asia (via both Suez and the Northern Sea Route) and 302 000 tons in 5 shipments to USA. 9 Due to limitations in Vitino port, it cannot handle ships larger than 80 000 dwt (Panamax size) 10, transporting up to 60 000 tons of gas condensate. In 2011, Novatek made transshipment of total 120 000 tons of condensate, from two Panamax vessels to one larger tanker, at Sarnes (North Cape). The tanker sailed to Bangkok via NSR. 11 From 2012, Novatek may move all its operations from Vitino in the White Sea, where the company built the condensate depot, to Ust-Luga in the Baltic Sea, where Novatek is constructing its own export terminal.

In 2010, there were 273 shipments with total 14.8 million tons of crude and petroleum products in transit from Russian ports in the North – Kara, Pechora, White and Barents seas 12. The monthly volumes varied from around 900 000 tons in February as lowest to around 1.7 million tons in July as highest. 13 87% of the westwards transit shipments departed from Murmansk 14, Korzhubaev, A. et al. Russia on world crude oil and petroleum product markets. Drilling and Oil magazine, May 2011.

www.novatek.ru/en/about/operations.

Bambulyak, A. and Frantzen, B. (2011) Oil transport from the Russian part of the Barents region. The Norwegian Barents Secretariat and Akvaplan-niva report (p. 62).

Ulf Hagen, Manager of Tschudi Arctic Transit, 29 November 2011.

See footnote 10 (pp. 45-70).

The Norwegian Costal Administration, traffic statistics petroleum transports to/from Russian ports in North.

NDF OHQ, traffic statistics petroleum transports along the Norwegian coast, 2010.

including tankers from Vitino that entered Murmansk port for customs clearance without offloading cargoes.

In 2011, Vardø Trafikksentral (NOR VTS) registered 274 shipments with almost 12 million tons of petroleum products in transit from Russia. Russian ports in the Kara, Pechora, White and Barents seas sent westwards about 4 million tons of crude oil (versus 8 million tons in 2010), 3 million tons of gas condensate, 3 million tons of light petroleum products, and 2 million tons of heavy fuel oil.



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