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«Activity Report 2007 Activity Report 2007                     ACTIVITY REPORT 2007  Activity Report 2007 Table of Contents  REVIEW OF ...»

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• Human Rights Law Services (HURILAWS);

• National Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME); and

• Department of Economics, Federal University of Science and Technology, Yola.

The major achievements of BECANS are as follows:

Stakeholder Mobilisation Collaboration was intensified with existing partners including Central Bank of Nigeria, National Planning Commission, National Bureau of Statistics, Nigerian Economic Summit Group Ltd/Gte, Manufacturers Association of Nigeria, Human Rights Law Services, Federal University of Technology, Yola and National Association of Small and Medium Enterprises.

–  –  –

Research Research activities during the year consisted of verification, processing and analysis of data obtained from the surveys. Some additional data were sought to meet observed data gaps. The data were fitted to the rating model and evaluated to produce values/estimates and then rankings of the states on all the indicators studied. The research activities were carried out through a series of working sessions of the Technical Working Group (TWG).

Publication and Dissemination of BECANS Reports The BECANS reports were published during the year. The reports are in two parts. The first is the state reports describing state-specific performance on the respective benchmarks, measures and indicators. The second is the national synthesis report which gives the summary performance of the respective states benchmarked against one another. Dissemination and advocacy climaxed in the launching of the BECANS reports. The occasion took place on 16th August, 2007 at the Transcorp Hilton Hotel, Abuja. Media partnership was agreed with BusinessDay Newspapers for public enlightenment, special reportage, review articles and press commentaries. In addition, BECANS news reports and commentaries were done by other newspapers including ThisDay Newspapers, Punch Newspapers, Champion Newspapers and others. A total of 8 commentaries, 14 articles and several serialized publications spanning over some weeks were recorded during the year.

–  –  –

Impact of BECANS

The project has made significant impact as follows:

• Increased stakeholder awareness and appreciation of the crucial role of business environment in promoting investments, employment and reducing poverty;

• Deepened public-private partnership in state-level business environment research, measurement and benchmarking in Nigeria;

• Stimulated the implementation of reforms in various areas of business environment in the states;

• Improved informational resources of state-level civil society and private sector groups for evidence-based advocacy for good economic governance;

• Generated and supplied comprehensive data sets on business environment and ratings of the states, for the first time in the history of Nigeria;

• Engendered greater interest and action in research and studies on business environment at the state level;

• Revealed the latent data weaknesses and inadequacies in the various federal and state government ministries, departments and agencies;

• Catalyzed sustained evidence-based stakeholder dialogue for improving business climate at the state level;

• Produced a policy monitoring framework by which the National Planning Commission and State Governments can periodically assess and evaluate business environment across the states of the country; and

• Increased the prospects for peer review among the federating states in the country.

3.2 ENTERPRISE SURVEY UNDER THE FEDERAL INLAND REVENUE SERVICEPROJECT

This project was carried out for the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS). It was aimed at developing a robust electronic taxpayer database in the country. It involved the development of survey methodology and data collection instruments, as well as, coordinating and supervising taxpayer census and data collection throughout the 36 States and FCT. The survey team comprised the lead (national coordinating) institution - Nigeria Institute for Social and Economic Research (NISER)), six regional coordinators/supervisors and 37 state survey teams covering 36 states and FCT. AIAE coordinated the enumeration exercise in the south-south zone comprising Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, and Rivers states.

The work involved supervision of census of all the business activities in all the local government areas. The census covered more than 50 business activities in the region including: Banks, Financial Institutions, Agric & Plantation, Conglomerate, Textile & Garment Industries, Building & Construction, etc. More than eighty three thousand (83,000) business enterprises were enumerated in the region.

Activity Report 2007 As regional coordinator, monitor and supervisor, AIAE contributed quality control to the enumeration exercise. This helped to minimize on-the-field errors such as omissions, unreasonable entries, impossible entries and double entries.

3.3 SIZE, NATURE AND TRENDS OF THE INFORMAL SECTOR OF THE NIGERIAN

ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM MACROECONOMIC AND MICROECONOMIC

ANALYSIS This study was carried out with support from the USAID REFORMS project, under subcontract with Development Alternatives Incorporated (DAI), Washington, DC. U.S.A. The study is intended to inform and guide national policies for harnessing the informal sector for economic growth and development.





Objectives It examines the characteristics and the socioeconomic and institutional determinants of informal sector enterprises. The study evaluates production processes, productivity, and investment and business conditions at the enterprise level. Also, the study estimates the size, relative contributions as well as the trends of Nigerian informal sector. The goal of the study is to improve understanding of the size, character and dynamics of informal sector in order to provide empirical evidence-based insights for overall economic planning, policy targeting and program design.

Methods The study adopts a two-pronged approach. The first is the macroeconomic (econometric) modeling to estimate the determinants, causality and size of the informal sector in relation to the Gross Domestic Product. The macroeconomic framework used is the multiple-indicator multiplecause (MIMIC) model, while the estimation was done using the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SURE) technique.

The second approach is based on survey of enterprises. The survey was designed to obtain data on enterprise level characteristics, production patterns, investment practices and business conditions. The survey also collected data covering the socioeconomic profile of enterprise owners, nature and determinants of enterprise level behaviour as well as growth patterns. The survey covered the South-South and South-East geopolitical zones of the country, comprising eleven (11) states. A total of four thousand, four hundred and fifty five (4,455) enterprises spanning various segments of informal sector were covered in the survey. Analysis of enterprise level data was done using a combination of techniques. Techniques employed include descriptive statistics and non-parametric methods. In addition, deeper analysis was done using the econometric models - Ordered Multinomial Logit model and the Cobb-Douglass Production Function.

Activity Report 2007

Findings The estimated model used two indicators of informality in Nigeria by applying the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR). The model showed consistency as indicated by a high correlation between the two indicators – Income-expenditure gap (IEG) and currency demand ratio (CDR).

The model estimated that the size of the informal sector has grown from 44.04% of GDP in 1970 to 66.75% of GDP in 2005. The macroeconomic analysis showed that the size of the informal sector has direct relationship with the widening gap between labour supply and demand, that is, unemployment, high tax burden and government control of the economy. On the other hand, the microeconomic analysis showed that whole sale and retail trade and personal services dominate the informal sector. Most female-owned businesses are in retail trade, personal services and hospitality services. Most enterprises are dominated by persons without post-secondary schooling. The study reveals that the sector has very low level of linkage with the formal sectors of the economy. The model estimates show a very labourintensive production process, very high incremental capital -output ratio (ICOR) and low returns to labour. Some of the most severe business constraints experienced by informal sector operators include lack of access to and high cost of funds, poor infrastructure (particularly electricity and transportation) and incessant taxes and levies by government.

3.4 SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT OF MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS IN NIGERIA, A

STUDY COMMISSIONED BY NIGERIAN COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (NCC)

Objective The study provides scientific quantitative evidence on the socioeconomic impact of mobile ICT in Nigeria, with the aim of informing and guiding the strategic planning and policies of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC).

Methods Five mobile ICT consumer categories are identified: individual consumers, small businesses, large firms, government ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) and non-governmental organisations (NGOs). Each of these is considered to be a separate class of consumer with different features and characteristics thus requiring that they are analyzed separately.

Secondary data was used for the macroeconomic estimations. Primary data was collected from a total sample of 8,000 comprising 5624 persons, 1180 small businesses, 290 large businesses, 495 government ministries, departments and agencies (MDAs) and 383 non-governmental

agencies (NGOs). The study adopts two mutually complementary analytical approaches:

Activity Report 2007 microeconomic and macroeconomic modelling and analysis. The micro-level analysis makes use of simple descriptive statistics and contingent valuation method (CVM). Different econometric methods were used to analyze the impact on economic growth, productivity, demand and supply for mobile telecommunication.

Findings

The study found that ownership of mobile handset varies by gender, education and location; but ownership is generally limited by ability to pay. The most important factors that determine the choice of network are network coverage, good customer service and interconnectivity. The quintile regression model of the determinants of expenditure reveals that the responsiveness of expenditure on Mobile Phone services is non-homogenous implying that factors that determine expenditure on Mobile Phone services have different degrees of impact on wealthy and poor individuals. The major determinants of willingness to pay include household size, age group and household wealth index score. The main areas of impact of mobile phones on firms’ activities include: improved business opportunities, improved response to emergencies, great ability to compete with other firms, improved corporate relation, and improved decision making, among others.

At the macroeconomic level, the study also revealed that mobile information communication technology is a catalyst to enhancing labour productivity. There was about 39.4% increase in labour productivity at the national level and approximately 53% at the firm level. Estimates of mobile ICT diffusion show that mobile ICT sub sector is about 2.5% of the 2006 GDP. This figure represents about 29.6% increase from the 2005 estimates. Also mobile ICT has a positive relationship with productivity and economic growth. Mobile ICT infrastructure generated an average of about 42 kobo gain to the economy for every N1.00 increase in the consumption of mobile ICT. This is generated through an increase in the demand for mobile telephone and increase in labour productivity. The mobile ICT subsector generates about 0.2% of the GDP growth. In return, a 1% increase in economic growth boosts the growth of the mobile ICT subsector by about 0.4. However, there is an indication which suggests that the growth rate of mobile ICT subsector will decline in 2007 if not checked. The subsector facilitated about 2.7% increase in reduction in poverty in 2006. This is reflected on the relationship between mobile ICT and development indicators measured by per capita GDP in 2006. This contribution is through mobile ICT labour augmenting relationship and mobile ICT employment generation.

Mobile ICT is income inelastic. Increase in income of consumers increase the demand for mobile ICT. However, the increase in expenditure on mobile ICT is not as much as the increase Activity Report 2007 in income. Further breakdown shows that, for every N1.00 increase in income there is approximately 60 kobo increase on mobile ICT effective demand. Mobile ICT sub sector has a network demand effect. In the long run the demand for mobile ICT in Nigeria will rise as its price or tariff reduces.

3.5 AGRICULTURAL PROCESSING AND POST-HARVEST CONDITIONS IN NIGERIA:

ENTERPRISE-LEVEL EXPERIENCES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

This study examines Nigeria’s agricultural processing problems at the enterprise level. The link between these problems and the overarching business environment is explored. The study captures the real-life experiences and viewpoints of enterprise owners, managers and other stakeholders in agricultural processing and post-harvest development. It is anticipated that the insights generated would inform the Federal Ministry of Agriculture in rallying stakeholders for developing agricultural processing in Nigeria.



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